Early in his investing career, Jonathan Hung was introduced to a small trading app with no revenue, limited users and a valuation that seemed difficult to justify. He was interested, but he wanted more evidence before committing.

He waited for stronger data, clearer signs of growth and greater certainty.

That company later became Robinhood.

Missing the opportunity taught him an important lesson: waiting for complete clarity can be just as costly as making the wrong decision. In startups, investing and leadership, perfect information rarely arrives when it is most useful. By the time every question has been answered, the opportunity may already be gone.

To make better decisions under uncertainty, Hung developed a framework called One Sigma Confidence.

Act When You Reach 70% Confidence

One Sigma Confidence is based on a straightforward principle: when you are approximately 70% confident in a decision, you should seriously consider acting.

This does not mean making careless decisions or ignoring potential risks. It means evaluating the available evidence, recognizing what remains unknown and moving forward once there is enough support for a reasonable choice.

Early-stage businesses rarely provide a complete picture. Customer needs can change, markets can shift and competitors can move quickly. Waiting for absolute confidence can prevent leaders from learning what would have happened if they had acted.

The 70% threshold creates a balance between recklessness and excessive caution.

Recognize When Analysis Becomes Avoidance

Careful analysis is valuable, but it can become a form of fear when it prevents action.

Founders may delay launching a product because they want more feedback. Investors may continue requesting information after the most important questions have already been answered. Employees may avoid making decisions because no one can guarantee the outcome.

These delays may appear responsible, but they can quietly damage a business. Momentum slows, competitors move ahead and potential customers or investors lose interest.

A detailed plan without real-world progress is often less valuable than an imperfect plan that is actively being tested.

Accept That Uncertainty Is Part of Innovation

Partial information is not necessarily a sign that something is wrong. It is a normal part of creating, investing in or leading something new.

Entrepreneurs often have to make decisions before customer demand is fully proven. Investors must evaluate companies before their long-term potential becomes obvious. Leaders must guide teams through conditions that may continue changing.

The goal is not to eliminate uncertainty. It is to become more skilled at making thoughtful decisions while uncertainty still exists.

When 70% Confidence Was Enough

Hung later faced another investment opportunity involving a robotics company. He evaluated the strength of the team, the value of the idea, the company’s valuation and how well the opportunity aligned with his investment strategy.

The company passed his required threshold, but several questions remained unanswered.

He believed the founder had the right temperament, the problem was meaningful and the early indicators were promising. That was enough for him to invest.

Years later, John Deere acquired the company for $250 million.

The experience reinforced the lesson he learned from missing Robinhood. Acting at 70% confidence is not the same as gambling. It is a structured way to participate in promising opportunities that may never provide complete certainty.

Action Creates Better Information

Good judgment is strengthened through experience, not endless planning.

Taking action produces real feedback. Customer conversations reveal whether a problem is important. Early sales show whether people are willing to pay. Product tests expose weaknesses. Investor discussions uncover concerns that may not appear in a presentation.

Each action produces new information that can improve the next decision.

Founders who move with sufficient confidence can adjust more quickly because they are working with evidence from the marketplace rather than depending only on assumptions.

Progress also helps teams remain motivated. Employees can see movement, learn from results and understand how their work contributes to the company’s direction.

How Investors Can Apply the Framework

Investors can use One Sigma Confidence to create a consistent decision-making process.

Instead of relying entirely on emotion or instinct, they can evaluate opportunities using a clear set of factors, such as:

• The experience and character of the founding team
• The importance of the problem being solved
• The strength of the business idea
• The company’s valuation
• The opportunity’s alignment with the investor’s goals

The purpose is not to make a perfect decision every time. No framework can remove all risk. The objective is to make decisions consistently and avoid allowing fear to control the process.

Investors can also use categories such as green, yellow and red to monitor companies over time. Regularly updating these assessments can reveal which founders need additional support, which businesses are improving and which investments may be moving in the wrong direction.

How Founders Can Apply the Framework

For founders, the 70% rule can provide permission to move forward without pretending to have every answer.

A leader does not need to eliminate uncertainty for the team. Instead, the leader must communicate honestly, make timely decisions and adjust when new information becomes available.

Teams are more likely to remain confident when leaders are calm and transparent. Investors also tend to appreciate founders who take action, communicate problems early and respond intentionally when circumstances change.

Leadership under uncertainty is not about acting fearless. It is about refusing to let discomfort prevent necessary progress.

Know When Hesitation Stops Being Useful

Reaching 70% confidence may not feel comfortable. There may still be unanswered questions, possible risks and reasons to doubt the decision.

However, once the available evidence supports a direction, continued hesitation may stop adding value. At that point, the only way to gain more clarity may be to move.

The decision can still be adjusted later. Acting does not mean becoming permanently committed to one path. It means choosing the best available direction, learning from the outcome and responding to new information.

Clarity Develops Through Movement

One Sigma Confidence is a skill that becomes stronger through repeated use and honest reflection.

It encourages leaders to respect uncertainty without becoming controlled by it. Instead of waiting for perfect clarity, they act when they have enough conviction, observe the results and make better decisions from there.

The businesses that make meaningful progress are often led by people who understand that certainty is rarely the starting point.

Clarity is usually created after the first step.