When a business starts to slip, the owner usually feels it before they can measure it. Fewer calls. A quieter inbox. A bank balance that seems lower than it should be. That feeling is useful as an alarm, but it’s a poor guide to what to do next. Some owners panic over a slow month that’s completely normal for their business. Others stay calm until the money runs out, because the slide was gradual and never felt urgent.

Every real turnaround starts the same way: with an honest look at the numbers. Not a full financial analysis, just enough to answer two questions. How serious is this? And how much time do I have to fix it?

For most small businesses, five numbers answer both.

1. Runway. How many months could the business keep running if no new money came in? Take the cash you have and divide it by what it costs to run the business each month, including your own pay. Under three months is urgent. Over six gives you room to think.

2. Revenue trend. Compare the last three months with the same three months last year. Seasonal businesses often look like they’re failing when they’re simply in their slow season. A year-over-year comparison removes that noise.

3. Pipeline. How much work is signed, proposed or in serious discussion for the next 60 days? An empty pipeline is a bigger warning than a slow current month, because it tells you about the months ahead.

4. Concentration. What share of your revenue comes from your largest client? If it’s more than about a third, the business can go from fine to in trouble with one email.

5. Margin. After paying for materials, subcontractors and tools, how much of each dollar is left? Busy but broke usually means the margin is too thin, which calls for a very different fix than not having enough customers.

Write the five numbers on one page. Then read them together. Low runway with a full pipeline is a cash-timing problem: chase invoices, ask for deposits, slow some spending. A healthy runway with an empty pipeline is a sales problem, and you have time to solve it. A good revenue trend with a thin margin is a pricing problem. Each combination points to a different first move, and most owners in trouble are working on the wrong one.

Then put a date on the calendar one month out and run the same five numbers again. A turnaround isn’t one decision. It’s a series of small corrections, and you can only tell whether they’re working if you measure the same things each time.

The lesson: before you change anything, find out exactly what’s wrong and how much time you have. A business in trouble rarely fails because the owner didn’t work hard enough. It fails because the owner worked hard on the wrong problem. Five numbers on one page will tell you which problem is real.

Article contributed by
The AFE Editorial Team